Research

Papers under review, working papers, publications, projects, talks, awards and notes.
Keywords

fiscal consolidation, public debt, debt dynamics, local projections, LP-DiD, event studies, difference-in-differences, biomarkers, household wealth, financial education, SHARE, EU-27

Gonzalo Llamosas GarcíaAssistant Professor in Public Finance at the University of Málaga Gonzalo Llamosas GarcíaProfesor de Hacienda Pública en la Universidad de Málaga

Under review

Decomposing the Debt Response to Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from EU-27 Local Projections, 1996–2024

With Cristina Mazas Pérez-Oleaga and José M. Domínguez-Martínez

Using local projections difference-in-differences on 125 consolidation entries in the EU-27, we find no evidence that entering a fiscal consolidation lowers the debt-to-GDP ratio within five years. Conditional on the fiscal position at entry, the response is centred on zero; without that conditioning the ratio rises in the short run, consistent with selection. An exact decomposition shows the improvement in the primary balance offset by the snowball term and by stock-flow adjustments, while output contracts, public investment falls and no decline in borrowing costs is detected.

Summary in Spanish

Working papers

Event-study estimators when adoption responds to past outcomes

When units adopt a policy in response to past shocks to the outcome, adopters are selected on bad shocks and the units still untreated on good ones. Under a factorised adoption hazard, the paper derives a closed form for the bias of every calendar-weight event-study estimator, shows that none of them is unbiased under two different persistences of the untreated outcome, and builds joint confidence sets for the dynamics and the effect. Applications to banking deregulation, fiscal rules and democratisation.

Does Biological Ageing Foreshadow Financial Fragility? Evidence from Dried-Blood-Spot Biomarkers and Household Wealth in Europe

Links blood biomarkers collected in SHARE in 2015 to household net wealth six years later, for about 7,400 respondents aged 50 and over in 12 European countries. Conditional on baseline wealth, income and health, a one-standard-deviation higher index of biological risk predicts net wealth about 7% lower; part of that gap reflects persistent economic position rather than later decline.

Publications

Work in progress

  • Sustainability for Whom? The Distributional Costs of Statutory Retirement-Age Reforms in Older Europe
  • Corporate Tax Structures in the Age of AI: Evidence from World Bank Data
  • Popular Discontent and Recall Elections

Research projects

  • 2020–2021EU Finance and Institutions: New Social and Environmental Challenges, Jean Monnet Module, European Commission. Researcher.
  • 2017–2020Europe, Finance and Institutions, Jean Monnet Module, European Commission. Researcher.
  • 2016–2019CITADEL: Empowering Citizens to Transform European Public Administrations, Horizon 2020, European Union. Predoctoral researcher.
  • 2015–2017Global Banks Programme, Santander Financial Institute (SANFI). Research assistant.

Talks

  • 2023Evaluando la trayectoria experimental de la educación financiera. Una revisión sistemática. VI Conference on Financial Education (Edufinet): Financial Education in a Context of Transition towards Sustainability, Málaga
  • 2021Una evaluación de modelos de pronóstico para casos COVID-19 en Cantabria. Statistical Conference of the Spanish Autonomous Communities, Canary Islands
  • 2019Behavioral Perspective on Saving Behavior. Banca March Workshop on Contemporary Issues in Banking, Madrid
  • 2019Explaining citizens’ coproduction through ICTs in health: a multi-level model analysis. IIAS Study Group on Co-production of Public Services, KU Leuven
  • 2017–2018CITADEL General Assembly conferences: The Hague, Riga, Bari, Brussels and Antwerp
  • 2017Co-creation in financial services: a semantic analysis. Wolpertinger Conference of the European Association of University Teachers of Banking and Finance, Santander
  • 2016Loss Aversion in Saving Behavior: Evidence from the ECB’s European Household Finance and Consumption Survey. XVIII World Economy Meeting, “Europe-America: Strategic Alliances in Global Economy”, University of Alcalá
  • 2016Loss Aversion in Saving Behavior in Europe: Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. I Workshop on Government, Incentives and Risk in Banking, Santander
  • 2015¿Tomas riesgos en tus inversiones? Tus características socioeconómicas pueden hacerte perder dinero. II Young Researchers’ Conference of Cantabria, Santander

Awards

  • 2016Best Paper Award, I Workshop on Government, Incentives and Risk in Banking (Financial Economics Section of ACEDE and Santander Financial Institute), Santander, for “Loss Aversion in Saving Behavior in Europe”
  • 2012Student Research Award (second prize), College of Economists of Cantabria and University of Cantabria

Editorial work and refereeing

  • 2016–2018Assistant Editor, Journal of Economic Policy Reform
  • RefereeJournal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics; Public Finance Review; Revista Galega de Economía

Notes and commentary

Short pieces on the papers and on methods, in English or Spanish.

Profiles

Google Scholar, ORCID, ResearchGate, Dialnet, Lens.org, my staff page and the research portal of the University of Málaga.