Research
Working papers
Does Fiscal Consolidation Reduce Public Debt? Evidence from the European Union Using Local Projections
Gonzalo Llamosas-García, Cristina Mazas Pérez-Oleaga, José M. Domínguez Martínez · 2026 · Under review at International Review of Economics & Finance
Applies Local Projections Difference-in-Differences (LP-DiD) to 126 fiscal consolidation episodes in the EU-27 over 1996–2024. Finds that consolidations raise the debt-to-GDP ratio in the short run, with output losses, an adverse interest-growth differential, persistent stock-flow adjustments and the absence of a credibility dividend on sovereign spreads driving the result. Heterogeneity by macroeconomic regime and consolidation design.
Published work
2025
What Works in Financial Education? Experimental Evidence on Program Impact
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Vol. 119 · DOI
Q1 in Economics, Econometrics and Finance.
2023
Predicting the Tide of the Pandemic: An In-Depth Analysis of Forecasting Models for COVID-19 in Cantabria
BEIO. Boletín de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 36–49 · Link
2020
A Behavioral Perspective on Saving Decisions. Empirical Evidence for Policymakers in the European Union
Global Policy, Vol. 11, No. S1, pp. 62–72 · DOI
Q1 in Political Science.
ICT-Enabled Co-Production of Public Services: Barriers and Enablers. A Systematic Review
Information Polity, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 25–48 · DOI
Ongoing projects
- Paper #2 · Methodological extensions of the LP-DiD framework applied to fiscal sustainability under r > g regimes.
- Vaccination and mental health (with coauthors) · Major revision in progress, target resubmission Q2 2026.
- AI and the tax base of advanced economies · Early-stage paper exploring how AI-driven labour-market transitions affect the structure and size of fiscal revenues in the EU.