I study what fiscal consolidations do to public debt in the European Union, how households make financial decisions, and what event-study estimates measure when governments act in response to the outcomes they want to change.
My work has appeared in the Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Global Policy and Information Polity, and I hold the ANECA accreditation as Associate Professor.
No evidence that entering a consolidation lowers the debt ratio within five years: the primary-balance effort is offset by the snowball term and by stock-flow adjustments.
Summary in SpanishWhen adoption responds to past shocks, the bias of standard event-study estimators shifts with the persistence of the outcome by the same amount for all of them, so choosing an estimator amounts to choosing the dynamics.
Blood biomarkers measured in 2015 predict lower household wealth six years later among Europeans aged 50 and over, partly through persistent differences in economic position.
Debt-to-GDP ratio after entering a fiscal consolidation, EU-27, 1996–2024. The first panel uses the baseline controls; the second compares countries that start from a similar primary balance. Points are estimates and bands are 95% confidence intervals.
